Article 6 in Motion: How Bilateral Cooperation is Shaping the Future of Global Carbon Markets

[Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; 7 July 2025]

The first few months of 2025 have made one thing clear: Article 6 of the Paris Agreement is becoming the new structure for international carbon trading and is no longer just a negotiation outcome.

A Turning Point for Carbon Markets

Participation is rising fast. According to IISD, carbon market activity has grown sharply, with a 900% increase in airline-linked participation and 170% growth in the corporate sector. Some analysts expect the global carbon market to reach $1 trillion by 2050.

Much of this growth is now being channeled through Article 6.2, as countries move forward with bilateral implementation agreements that authorize and account for internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs).

Why Article 6 Was Created

Adopted in 2015, Article 6 was designed to give countries a way to cooperate voluntarily in reaching their climate targets. The goal was to reduce emissions more efficiently while encouraging broader participation through carbon markets.

Article 6 introduced three pathways:

• 6.2 allows direct country-to-country cooperation and credit transfers
• 6.4 creates a centralized UN-run market (still under development)
• 6.8 promotes non-market approaches like technology transfer or capacity building

The emphasis has always been on flexibility, transparency, and environmental integrity, but the operational details took years to finalize.

From Paris to Glasgow: Rules, Refinement, and Realism

It wasn’t until the Glasgow Climate Pact in 2021 that Article 6 finally got a complete set of implementation rules. These rules included how countries should authorize ITMOs, how to apply corresponding adjustments to avoid double-counting, and how to report transfers transparently.

The rules gave countries a path forward—but also left them with the task of building domestic systems that could track and manage these transfers in practice.

In 2025, we’re now seeing that happen. Countries are entering formal, bilateral agreements that define how credits will be issued, tracked, and counted against national climate goals.

Integrity Still Matters

With this growth comes scrutiny. As countries take ownership of credit approval and transfer, one key principle must remain: environmental integrity.

Projects should deliver real, additional, and measurable emissions reductions. That requires credible methodologies, verified baselines, and functioning monitoring systems. Without that, confidence in Article 6 risks being undermined, especially by buyers demanding quality and permanence.

While bilateral agreements offer flexibility, they also increase the need for transparency. Clear national registries, benefit-sharing rules, and MRV frameworks will make the difference between high-trust and high-risk systems.

Who’s Leading, and How?

According to UNEP CCC’s Article 6 pipeline, more than 75 projects are in development under Article 6.2. Over 30 countries are actively engaged or in preparation stages.

Notable buyers include:

• Switzerland, using Article 6 to meet climate goals through projects in Ghana and Senegal
• Japan, investing in forestry and clean energy credits abroad
• Singapore, supporting credits from Bhutan and Peru

Host countries range from small island states to large tropical forest economies. Some have signed MOUs, others have issued detailed guidance on how ITMOs will be approved. Uganda, for example, recently launched its Article 6 framework with a public registry and monitoring protocols. You can read our full article on Uganda’s new regulation here.

What Comes Next

As Article 6 moves into broader implementation, here’s what to watch:

• More national-level procedures for credit approval and authorization
• Stronger alignment between NDCs and carbon projects to avoid overselling
• Greater demand for transparency from buyers, donors, and regulators
• New questions on how removals, co-benefits, and permanence will be addressed within Article 6 frameworks

For developers, it will be essential to engage early with host country focal points and understand each country’s expectations. Not all bilateral agreements are structured the same way, and implementation pathways will vary.

Article 6 is no longer just about potential. With bilateral cooperation growing and national systems taking shape, the next phase of international carbon trading is being built in real time. For those committed to high-integrity, policy-aligned climate solutions, this presents both a responsibility and an opportunity.